From concept to delivery: a yeast-expressed recombinant protein-based COVID-19 vaccine technology suitable for global access.

INTRODUCTION: The development of a yeast-expressed recombinant protein-based vaccine technology co-developed with LMIC vaccine producers and suitable as a COVID-19 vaccine for global access is described. The proof-of-concept for developing a SARS-CoV-2 spike protein receptor-binding domain (RBD) antigen as a yeast-derived recombinant protein vaccine technology is described. AREAS COVERED: Genetic Engineering: The strategy is presented for the design and genetic modification used during cloning and expression in the yeast system. Process and Assay Development: A summary is presented of how a scalable, reproducible, and robust production process for the recombinant protein COVID-19 vaccine antigen was developed. Formulation and Pre-clinical Strategy: We report on the pre-clinical and formulation strategy used for the proof-of-concept evaluation of the SARS-CoV-2 RBD vaccine antigen. Technology Transfer and Partnerships: The process used for the technology transfer and co-development with LMIC vaccine producers is described. Clinical Development and Delivery: The approach used by LMIC developers to establish the industrial process, clinical development, and deployment is described. EXPERT OPINION: Highlighted is an alternative model for developing new vaccines for emerging infectious diseases of pandemic importance starting with an academic institution directly transferring their technology to LMIC vaccine producers without the involvement of multinational pharma companies.

An aluminum hydroxide:CpG adjuvant enhances protection elicited by a SARS-CoV-2 receptor binding domain vaccine in aged mice.

Global deployment of vaccines that can provide protection across several age groups is still urgently needed to end the COVID-19 pandemic, especially in low- and middle-income countries. Although vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 based on mRNA and adenoviral vector technologies have been rapidly developed, additional practical and scalable SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are required to meet global demand. Protein subunit vaccines formulated with appropriate adjuvants represent an approach to address this urgent need. The receptor binding domain (RBD) is a key target of SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibodies but is poorly immunogenic. We therefore compared pattern recognition receptor (PRR) agonists alone or formulated with aluminum hydroxide (AH) and benchmarked them against AS01B and AS03-like emulsion-based adjuvants for their potential to enhance RBD immunogenicity in young and aged mice. We found that an AH and CpG adjuvant formulation (AH:CpG) produced an 80-fold increase in anti-RBD neutralizing antibody titers in both age groups relative to AH alone and protected aged mice from the SARS-CoV-2 challenge. The AH:CpG-adjuvanted RBD vaccine elicited neutralizing antibodies against both wild-type SARS-CoV-2 and the B.1.351 (beta) variant at serum concentrations comparable to those induced by the licensed Pfizer-BioNTech BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine. AH:CpG induced similar cytokine and chemokine gene enrichment patterns in the draining lymph nodes of both young adult and aged mice and enhanced cytokine and chemokine production in human mononuclear cells of younger and older adults. These data support further development of AH:CpG-adjuvanted RBD as an affordable vaccine that may be effective across multiple age groups.

Protein A-Nanoluciferase fusion protein for generalized, sensitive detection of immunoglobulin G.

Detection and quantification of antibodies, especially immunoglobulin G (IgG), is a cornerstone of ELISAs, many diagnostics, and the development of antibody-based drugs. Current state-of-the-art immunoassay techniques for antibody detection require species-specific secondary antibodies and carefully-controlled bioconjugations. Poor conjugation efficiency degrades assay performance and increases the risk of clinical false positives due to non-specific binding. We developed a generic, highly-sensitive platform for IgG quantification by fusing the IgG-Fc binding Z domain of Staphylococcal Protein A with the ultrabright bioluminescence reporter Nanoluc-luciferase (Nluc). We demonstrated the application of this fusion protein in a sandwich IgG detection immunoassay using surface-bound antigens to capture target IgG and protein A-Nanoluc fusion as the detector. We optimized the platform's sensitivity by incorporating multiple repeats of the Z domain into the fusion protein constructs. Using rabbit and mouse anti-SARS-CoV-2 Nucleoprotein IgGs as model analytes, we performed ELISAs in two different formats, either with SARS-CoV-2 Nucleoprotein as the capture antigen or with polyclonal chicken IgY as the capture antibody. Using standard laboratory equipment, the platform enabled the quantitation of antibody analytes at concentrations as low as 10 pg/mL (67 fM).

Receptor-binding domain recombinant protein on alum-CpG induces broad protection against SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern.

We conducted preclinical studies in mice using a yeast-produced SARS-CoV-2 RBD subunit vaccine candidate formulated with aluminum hydroxide (alum) and CpG deoxynucleotides. This formulation is equivalent to the CorbevaxTM vaccine that recently received emergency use authorization by the Drugs Controller General ofIndia. We compared the immune response of mice vaccinated with RBD/alum to mice vaccinated with RBD/alum + CpG. We also evaluated mice immunized with RBD/alum + CpG and boosted with RBD/alum. Mice were immunized twice intramuscularly at a 21-day interval. Compared to two doses of the /alum formulation, the RBD/alum + CpG vaccine induced a stronger and more balanced Th1/Th2 cellular immune response, with high levels of neutralizing antibodies against the original Wuhan isolate of SARS-CoV-2 as well as the B.1.1.7 (Alpha), B.1.351 (Beta), B.1.617.2 and (Delta) variants. Neutralizing antibody titers against the B.1.1.529 (BA.1, Omicron) variant exceeded those in human convalescent plasma after Wuhan infection but were lower than against the other variants. Interestingly, the second dose did not benefit from the addition of CpG, possibly allowing dose-sparing of the adjuvant in the future. The data reported here reinforces that the RBD/alum + CpG vaccine formulation is suitable for inducing broadly neutralizing antibodies against SARS-CoV-2, including variants of concern.

Vaxi-DL: A web-based deep learning server to identify potential vaccine candidates.

The development of a new vaccine is a challenging exercise involving several steps including computational studies, experimental work, and animal studies followed by clinical studies. To accelerate the process, in silico screening is frequently used for antigen identification. Here, we present Vaxi-DL, web-based deep learning (DL) software that evaluates the potential of protein sequences to serve as vaccine target antigens. Four different DL pathogen models were trained to predict target antigens in bacteria, protozoa, fungi, and viruses that cause infectious diseases in humans. Datasets containing antigenic and non-antigenic sequences were derived from known vaccine candidates and the Protegen database. Biological and physicochemical properties were computed for the datasets using publicly available bioinformatics tools. For each of the four pathogen models, the datasets were divided into training, validation, and testing subsets and then scaled and normalised. The models were constructed using Fully Connected Layers (FCLs), hyper-tuned, and trained using the training subset. Accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, precision, recall, and AUC (Area under the Curve) were used as metrics to assess the performance of these models. The models were benchmarked using independent datasets of known target antigens against other prediction tools such as VaxiJen and Vaxign-ML. We also tested Vaxi-DL on 219 known potential vaccine candidates (PVC) from 37 different pathogens. Our tool predicted 175 PVCs correctly out of 219 sequences. We also tested Vaxi-DL on different datasets obtained from multiple resources. Our tool has demonstrated an average sensitivity of 93% and will thus be a useful tool for prioritising PVCs for preclinical studies.

Maintaining face mask use before and after achieving different COVID-19 vaccination coverage levels: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Face mask wearing has been an important part of the response to the COVID-19 pandemic. As vaccination coverage progresses in countries, relaxation of such practices is increasing. Subsequent COVID-19 surges have raised the questions of whether face masks should be encouraged or required and for how long. Here, we aim to assess the value of maintaining face masks use indoors according to different COVID-19 vaccination coverage levels in the USA. METHODS: In this computational simulation-model study, we developed and used a Monte Carlo simulation model representing the US population and SARS-CoV-2 spread. Simulation experiments compared what would happen if face masks were used versus not used until given final vaccination coverages were achieved. Different scenarios varied the target vaccination coverage (70-90%), the date these coverages were achieved (Jan 1, 2022, to July 1, 2022), and the date the population discontinued wearing face masks. FINDINGS: Simulation experiments revealed that maintaining face mask use (at the coverage seen in the USA from March, 2020, to July, 2020) until target vaccination coverages were achieved was cost-effective and in many cases cost saving from both the societal and third-party payer perspectives across nearly all scenarios explored. Face mask use was estimated to be cost-effective and usually cost saving when the cost of face masks per person per day was ≤US$1·25. In all scenarios, it was estimated to be cost-effective to maintain face mask use for about 2-10 weeks beyond the date that target vaccination coverage (70-90%) was achieved, with this added duration being longer when the target coverage was achieved during winter versus summer. Factors that might increase the transmissibility of the virus (eg, emergence of the delta [B.1.617.2] and omicron [B.1.1.529] variants), or decrease vaccine effectiveness (eg, waning immunity or escape variants), or increase social interactions among certain segments of the population, only increased the cost savings or cost-effectiveness provided by maintaining face mask use. INTERPRETATION: Our study provides strong support for maintaining face mask use until and a short time after achieving various final vaccination coverage levels, given that maintaining face mask use can be not just cost-effective, but even cost saving. The emergence of the omicron variant and the prospect of future variants that might be more transmissible and reduce vaccine effectiveness only increases the value of face masks. FUNDING: The Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, the National Institute of General Medical Sciences, the National Science Foundation, the National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences, and the City University of New York.

Yeast-expressed recombinant SARS-CoV-2 receptor binding domain RBD203-N1 as a COVID-19 protein vaccine candidate.

SARS-CoV-2 protein subunit vaccines are currently being evaluated by multiple manufacturers to address the global vaccine equity gap, and need for low-cost, easy to scale, safe, and effective COVID-19 vaccines. In this paper, we report on the generation of the receptor-binding domain RBD203-N1 yeast expression construct, which produces a recombinant protein capable of eliciting a robust immune response and protection in mice against SARS-CoV-2 challenge infections. The RBD203-N1 antigen was expressed in the yeast Pichia pastoris X33. After fermentation at the 5 L scale, the protein was purified by hydrophobic interaction chromatography followed by anion exchange chromatography. The purified protein was characterized biophysically and biochemically, and after its formulation, the immunogenicity was evaluated in mice. Sera were evaluated for their efficacy using a SARS-CoV-2 pseudovirus assay. The RBD203-N1 protein was expressed with a yield of 492.9 ± 3.0 mg/L of fermentation supernatant. A two-step purification process produced a >96% pure protein with a recovery rate of 55 ± 3% (total yield of purified protein: 270.5 ± 13.2 mg/L fermentation supernatant). The protein was characterized to be a homogeneous monomer that showed a well-defined secondary structure, was thermally stable, antigenic, and when adjuvanted on Alhydrogel in the presence of CpG it was immunogenic and induced high levels of neutralizing antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 pseudovirus. The characteristics of the RBD203-N1 protein-based vaccine show that this candidate is another well suited RBD-based construct for technology transfer to manufacturing entities and feasibility of transition into the clinic to evaluate its immunogenicity and safety in humans.

Lives and Costs Saved by Expanding and Expediting Coronavirus Disease 2019 Vaccination.

BACKGROUND: With multiple coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines available, understanding the epidemiologic, clinical, and economic value of increasing coverage levels and expediting vaccination is important. METHODS: We developed a computational model (transmission and age-stratified clinical and economics outcome model) representing the United States population, COVID-19 coronavirus spread (February 2020-December 2022), and vaccination to determine the impact of increasing coverage and expediting time to achieve coverage. RESULTS: When achieving a given vaccination coverage in 270 days (70% vaccine efficacy), every 1% increase in coverage can avert an average of 876 800 (217 000-2 398 000) cases, varying with the number of people already vaccinated. For example, each 1% increase between 40% and 50% coverage can prevent 1.5 million cases, 56 240 hospitalizations, and 6660 deaths; gain 77 590 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs); and save $602.8 million in direct medical costs and $1.3 billion in productivity losses. Expediting to 180 days could save an additional 5.8 million cases, 215 790 hospitalizations, 26 370 deaths, 206 520 QALYs, $3.5 billion in direct medical costs, and $4.3 billion in productivity losses. CONCLUSIONS: Our study quantifies the potential value of decreasing vaccine hesitancy and increasing vaccination coverage and how this value may decrease with the time it takes to achieve coverage, emphasizing the need to reach high coverage levels as soon as possible, especially before the fall/winter.

Identification of vaccine targets in pathogens and design of a vaccine using computational approaches.

Antigen identification is an important step in the vaccine development process. Computational approaches including deep learning systems can play an important role in the identification of vaccine targets using genomic and proteomic information. Here, we present a new computational system to discover and analyse novel vaccine targets leading to the design of a multi-epitope subunit vaccine candidate. The system incorporates reverse vaccinology and immuno-informatics tools to screen genomic and proteomic datasets of several pathogens such as Trypanosoma cruzi, Plasmodium falciparum, and Vibrio cholerae to identify potential vaccine candidates (PVC). Further, as a case study, we performed a detailed analysis of the genomic and proteomic dataset of T. cruzi (CL Brenner and Y strain) to shortlist eight proteins as possible vaccine antigen candidates using properties such as secretory/surface-exposed nature, low transmembrane helix (< 2), essentiality, virulence, antigenic, and non-homology with host/gut flora proteins. Subsequently, highly antigenic and immunogenic MHC class I, MHC class II and B cell epitopes were extracted from top-ranking vaccine targets. The designed vaccine construct containing 24 epitopes, 3 adjuvants, and 4 linkers was analysed for its physicochemical properties using different tools, including docking analysis. Immunological simulation studies suggested significant levels of T-helper, T-cytotoxic cells, and IgG1 will be elicited upon administration of such a putative multi-epitope vaccine construct. The vaccine construct is predicted to be soluble, stable, non-allergenic, non-toxic, and to offer cross-protection against related Trypanosoma species and strains. Further, studies are required to validate safety and immunogenicity of the vaccine.

A yeast expressed RBD-based SARS-CoV-2 vaccine formulated with 3M-052-alum adjuvant promotes protective efficacy in non-human primates.

Ongoing SARS-CoV-2 vaccine development is focused on identifying stable, cost-effective, and accessible candidates for global use, specifically in low and middle-income countries. Here, we report the efficacy of a rapidly scalable, novel yeast expressed SARS-CoV-2 specific receptor-binding domain (RBD) based vaccine in rhesus macaques. We formulated the RBD immunogen in alum, a licensed and an emerging alum adsorbed TLR-7/8 targeted, 3M-052-alum adjuvants. The RBD+3M-052-alum adjuvanted vaccine promoted better RBD binding and effector antibodies, higher CoV-2 neutralizing antibodies, improved Th1 biased CD4+T cell reactions, and increased CD8+ T cell responses when compared to the alum-alone adjuvanted vaccine. RBD+3M-052-alum induced a significant reduction of SARS-CoV-2 virus in respiratory tract upon challenge, accompanied by reduced lung inflammation when compared with unvaccinated controls. Anti-RBD antibody responses in vaccinated animals inversely correlated with viral load in nasal secretions and BAL. RBD+3M-052-alum blocked a post SARS-CoV-2 challenge increase in CD14+CD16++ intermediate blood monocytes, and Fractalkine, MCP-1, and TRAIL in the plasma. Decreased plasma analytes and intermediate monocyte frequencies correlated with reduced nasal and BAL viral loads. Lastly, RBD-specific plasma cells accumulated in the draining lymph nodes and not in the bone marrow, contrary to previous findings. Together, these data show that a yeast expressed, RBD-based vaccine+3M-052-alum provides robust immune responses and protection against SARS-CoV-2, making it a strong and scalable vaccine candidate.

Process development and scale-up optimization of the SARS-CoV-2 receptor binding domain-based vaccine candidate, RBD219-N1C1.

A SARS-CoV-2 RBD219-N1C1 (RBD219-N1C1) recombinant protein antigen formulated on Alhydrogel® has recently been shown to elicit a robust neutralizing antibody response against SARS-CoV-2 pseudovirus in mice. The antigen has been produced under current good manufacturing practices (cGMPs) and is now in clinical testing. Here, we report on process development and scale-up optimization for upstream fermentation and downstream purification of the antigen. This includes production at the 1-L and 5-L scales in the yeast, Pichia pastoris, and the comparison of three different chromatographic purification methods. This culminated in the selection of a process to produce RBD219-N1C1 with a yield of >400 mg per liter of fermentation with >92% purity and >39% target product recovery after purification. In addition, we show the results from analytical studies, including SEC-HPLC, DLS, and an ACE2 receptor binding assay that were performed to characterize the purified proteins to select the best purification process. Finally, we propose an optimized upstream fermentation and downstream purification process that generates quality RBD219-N1C1 protein antigen and is fully scalable at a low cost. KEY POINTS: • Yeast fermentation conditions for a recombinant COVID-19 vaccine were determined. • Three purification protocols for a COVID-19 vaccine antigen were compared. • Reproducibility of a scalable, low-cost process for a COVID-19 vaccine was shown. Graphical abstract.

SARS­CoV-2 RBD219-N1C1: A yeast-expressed SARS-CoV-2 recombinant receptor-binding domain candidate vaccine stimulates virus neutralizing antibodies and T-cell immunity in mice.

There is an urgent need for an accessible and low-cost COVID-19 vaccine suitable for low- and middle-income countries. Here, we report on the development of a SARS-CoV-2 receptor-binding domain (RBD) protein, expressed at high levels in yeast (Pichia pastoris), as a suitable vaccine candidate against COVID-19. After introducing two modifications into the wild-type RBD gene to reduce yeast-derived hyperglycosylation and improve stability during protein expression, we show that the recombinant protein, RBD219-N1C1, is equivalent to the wild-type RBD recombinant protein (RBD219-WT) in an in vitro ACE-2 binding assay. Immunogenicity studies of RBD219-N1C1 and RBD219-WT proteins formulated with Alhydrogel® were conducted in mice, and, after two doses, both the RBD219-WT and RBD219-N1C1 vaccines induced high levels of binding IgG antibodies. Using a SARS-CoV-2 pseudovirus, we further showed that sera obtained after a two-dose immunization schedule of the vaccines were sufficient to elicit strong neutralizing antibody titers in the 1:1,000 to 1:10,000 range, for both antigens tested. The vaccines induced IFN-γ IL-6, and IL-10 secretion, among other cytokines. Overall, these data suggest that the RBD219-N1C1 recombinant protein, produced in yeast, is suitable for further evaluation as a human COVID-19 vaccine, in particular, in an Alhydrogel® containing formulation and possibly in combination with other immunostimulants.

Genetic modification to design a stable yeast-expressed recombinant SARS-CoV-2 receptor binding domain as a COVID-19 vaccine candidate.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by SARS-CoV-2 has now spread worldwide to infect over 110 million people, with approximately 2.5 million reported deaths. A safe and effective vaccine remains urgently needed. METHOD: We constructed three variants of the recombinant receptor-binding domain (RBD) of the SARS-CoV-2 spike (S) protein (residues 331-549) in yeast as follows: (1) a "wild type" RBD (RBD219-WT), (2) a deglycosylated form (RBD219-N1) by deleting the first N-glycosylation site, and (3) a combined deglycosylated and cysteine-mutagenized form (C538A-mutated variant (RBD219-N1C1)). We compared the expression yields, biophysical characteristics, and functionality of the proteins produced from these constructs. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: These three recombinant RBDs showed similar secondary and tertiary structure thermal stability and had the same affinity to their receptor, angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE-2), suggesting that the selected deletion or mutations did not cause any significant structural changes or alteration of function. However, RBD219-N1C1 had a higher fermentation yield, was easier to purify, was not hyperglycosylated, and had a lower tendency to form oligomers, and thus was selected for further vaccine development and evaluation. GENERAL SIGNIFICANCE: By genetic modification, we were able to design a better-controlled and more stable vaccine candidate, which is an essential and important criterion for any process and manufacturing of biologics or drugs for human use.

The Benefits of Vaccinating With the First Available COVID-19 Coronavirus Vaccine.

INTRODUCTION: During a pandemic, there are many situations in which the first available vaccines may not have as high effectiveness as vaccines that are still under development or vaccines that are not yet ready for distribution, raising the question of whether it is better to go with what is available now or wait. METHODS: In 2020, the team developed a computational model that represents the U.S. population, COVID-19 coronavirus spread, and vaccines with different possible efficacies (to prevent infection or to reduce severe disease) and vaccination timings to estimate the clinical and economic value of vaccination. RESULTS: Except for a limited number of situations, mainly early on in a pandemic and for a vaccine that prevents infection, when an initial vaccine is available, waiting for a vaccine with a higher efficacy results in additional hospitalizations and costs over the course of the pandemic. For example, if a vaccine with a 50% efficacy in preventing infection becomes available when 10% of the population has already been infected, waiting until 40% of the population are infected for a vaccine with 80% efficacy in preventing infection results in 15.6 million additional cases and 1.5 million additional hospitalizations, costing $20.6 billion more in direct medical costs and $12.4 billion more in productivity losses. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that there are relatively few situations in which it is worth foregoing the first COVID-19 vaccine available in favor of a vaccine that becomes available later on in the pandemic even if the latter vaccine has a substantially higher efficacy.

Recombinant protein vaccines, a proven approach against coronavirus pandemics.

With the COVID-19 pandemic now ongoing for close to a year, people all over the world are still waiting for a vaccine to become available. The initial focus of accelerated global research and development efforts to bring a vaccine to market as soon as possible was on novel platform technologies that promised speed but had limited history in the clinic. In contrast, recombinant protein vaccines, with numerous examples in the clinic for many years, missed out on the early wave of investments from government and industry. Emerging data are now surfacing suggesting that recombinant protein vaccines indeed might offer an advantage or complement to the nucleic acid or viral vector vaccines that will likely reach the clinic faster. Here, we summarize the current public information on the nature and on the development status of recombinant subunit antigens and adjuvants targeting SARS-CoV-2 infections.

Yeast-Expressed SARS-CoV Recombinant Receptor-Binding Domain (RBD219-N1) Formulated with Aluminum Hydroxide Induces Protective Immunity and Reduces Immune Enhancement.

We developed a severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) subunit recombinant protein vaccine candidate based on a high-yielding, yeast- engineered, receptor-binding domain (RBD219-N1) of the SARS beta-coronavirus (SARS-CoV) spike (S) protein. When formulated with Alhydrogel®, RBD219-N1 induced high-level neutralizing antibodies against both pseudotyped virus and a clinical (mouse-adapted) isolate of SARS-CoV. Here, we report that mice immunized with RBD219-N1/Alhydrogel® were fully protected from lethal SARS-CoV challenge (0% mortality), compared to ~ 30% mortality in mice when immunized with the SARS S protein formulated with Alhydrogel®, and 100% mortality in negative controls. An RBD219-N1 formulation Alhydrogel® was also superior to the S protein, unadjuvanted RBD, and AddaVax (MF59-like adjuvant)-formulated RBD in inducing specific antibodies and preventing cellular infiltrates in the lungs upon SARS-CoV challenge. Specifically, a formulation with a 1:25 ratio of RBD219-N1 to Alhydrogel® provided high neutralizing antibody titers, 100% protection with non-detectable viral loads with minimal or no eosinophilic pulmonary infiltrates. As a result, this vaccine formulation is under consideration for further development against SARS-CoV and potentially other emerging and re-emerging beta-CoVs such as SARS-CoV-2.

Yeast-expressed SARS-CoV recombinant receptor-binding domain (RBD219-N1) formulated with aluminum hydroxide induces protective immunity and reduces immune enhancement.

We developed a severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) subunit recombinant protein vaccine candidate based on a high-yielding, yeast-engineered, receptor-binding domain (RBD219-N1) of the SARS beta-coronavirus (SARS-CoV) spike (S) protein. When formulated with Alhydrogel®, RBD219-N1 induced high levels of neutralizing antibodies against both pseudotyped virus and a clinical (mouse-adapted) isolate of SARS-CoV. Here, we report that mice immunized with RBD219-N1/Alhydrogel® were fully protected from lethal SARS-CoV challenge (0% mortality), compared to ~30% mortality in mice immunized with the SARS S protein formulated with Alhydrogel®, and 100% mortality in negative controls. An RBD219-N1 formulation with Alhydrogel® was also superior to the S protein, unadjuvanted RBD, and AddaVax (MF59-like adjuvant)-formulated RBD in inducing specific antibodies and preventing cellular infiltrates in the lungs upon SARS-CoV challenge. Specifically, a formulation with a 1:25 ratio of RBD219-N1 to Alhydrogel® provided high neutralizing antibody titers, 100% protection with non-detectable viral loads with minimal or no eosinophilic pulmonary infiltrates. As a result, this vaccine formulation is under consideration for further development against SARS-CoV and potentially other emerging and re-emerging beta-CoVs such as SARS-CoV-2.

Vaccine Efficacy Needed for a COVID-19 Coronavirus Vaccine to Prevent or Stop an Epidemic as the Sole Intervention.

INTRODUCTION: Given the continuing COVID-19 pandemic and much of the U.S. implementing social distancing owing to the lack of alternatives, there has been a push to develop a vaccine to eliminate the need for social distancing. METHODS: In 2020, the team developed a computational model of the U.S. simulating the spread of COVID-19 coronavirus and vaccination. RESULTS: Simulation experiments revealed that to prevent an epidemic (reduce the peak by >99%), the vaccine efficacy has to be at least 60% when vaccination coverage is 100% (reproduction number=2.5-3.5). This vaccine efficacy threshold rises to 70% when coverage drops to 75% and up to 80% when coverage drops to 60% when reproduction number is 2.5, rising to 80% when coverage drops to 75% when the reproduction number is 3.5. To extinguish an ongoing epidemic, the vaccine efficacy has to be at least 60% when coverage is 100% and at least 80% when coverage drops to 75% to reduce the peak by 85%-86%, 61%-62%, and 32% when vaccination occurs after 5%, 15%, and 30% of the population, respectively, have already been exposed to COVID-19 coronavirus. A vaccine with an efficacy between 60% and 80% could still obviate the need for other measures under certain circumstances such as much higher, and in some cases, potentially unachievable, vaccination coverages. CONCLUSIONS: This study found that the vaccine has to have an efficacy of at least 70% to prevent an epidemic and of at least 80% to largely extinguish an epidemic without any other measures (e.g., social distancing).